“Two Radical Muslims on AF 447”, really, what is the source?

Posted on 11. Jun, 2009 by in Featured

After some research I found the story on DEBKAfiles. Here are a couple of quotes I found describing DEBKAfiles; attributed, not anonymous:

“most of the information is attributed to unidentified sources.” Forbes

Yediot Achronot’s investigative reporter Ronen Bergman claims that the site “relies on information from sources with an agenda, and that Israeli intelligence officials do not consider even 10 percent of the site’s content to be reliable.”

Even supporters say they are right on only 80% of predictions. 800 is a great batting average; but would you fly with an airline that crashed 20% of their flights? Intelligence is in many ways a guessing game; an old trick is to guess the obvious. It raises the batting average (ask A-Rod). Aircraft accident investigations should be based on analysis of the known facts.

AF 447 sent a series of codes; these codes look very similar to fault codes from past fly by wire incidents, particularly to the QANTAS flight 72 upset incident. The cabin pressure fault was last, or near the last fault code sent. Had there been a bomb, I think it is apparent it would have been first and perhaps the only code sent.

A second article asks who turned off the auto pilot then suggests the crew did and intentionally crashed it to stop the terrorist. A simple read of the ATSB preliminary report would show the auto pilot de-selecting was a part of the timeline.

Let’s look at a couple of paragraphs:

“Saturday, June 6, when the French and US president held a news conference at Caen, Barack Obama commented, apparently off the cuff: “…it’s not clear yet what happened to the plane but the two countries want to find discover what caused the plane to be lost.”
This sort of comment by a US president and America’s active involvement in the investigation of a foreign air disaster when the plane is not of US manufacture and no Americans were aboard are unusual – unless a serious crime or terror is suspected. So too is Sarkozy’s request to Obama for active US participation in the search without consulting with Air France.”

-The Presidents comment was not unusual; it is not known what happened yet, and certainly was not known last week. Of course both countries want to know what happened; both countries have airlines that fly the model.
-There were two Americans on board and it has been widely reported.
-The last comment is also ridiculous; governments investigate accidents not the airline that crashed. And it is indeed routine for American investigators to help other countries in aircraft accidents.

Finally I guess I could take the “special report” more seriously if they had spelled report correctly on their front page. Accident investigation and intelligence gathering is about detail and using the tools available, like spell-check for example (I know I need it).

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