Unconnected to A330 problems of late? Maybe, maybe not; I think not. The FADECs are integrated into the ADIRU’s (aircraft computers) that control every aspect of flight. In the recent control excursions the pitot system has been blamed (AF, NWA, etc) and in the case of the QANTAS excursions the angle of attack system (AOA). Now we get FADEC (duel, very unlikely) failures. There is not a single point of failure; unless you dig a bit deeper and analyze where the information is processed and acted upon. The ADIRU #1. How is engine thrust related? If the ADIRU senses the aircraft approaching stall; taking input from speed (pitot) or angle of attack the engines will be directed to over-ride the pilot and run power up and if the AOA spikes the flight controls will be directed to push negative g. Ah Ha!

Remember the engines on Sully’s A320 would have still produced thrust, probably allowing him to reach an airfield. However the FADECs over-rode the crew and shut them down. Humans are smarter than computers, they understand the unquantifiable; for example it is better to burn engines up then go for a swim.

Back in the day, when we fought an F-16 slow we didn’t fight the aircraft (we’d loose) we fought the computer. It would over-ride the pilot exposing him to a guns shot. The FA-18 was different (also fly-by-wire); if you wanted to fly zero airspeed it would let you, the pilot had the over-all control. Not that I haven’t witnessed a fight for control between an ex A-7 pilot and his brand new F-18 (Hornet does a hands off catapult launch) off the cat. However, in general the Navy wanted the pilot to be the final arbiter. Personally I agree.

I have read accounts saying that the Polish President had in the past ordered the crew to attempt to land. Still, it was the Aircraft Commander who made the decision to try another landing instead of diverting.

Could a mechanical problem have added to the accident? Certainly. The causal factor, in my opinion, will be descending below the minimum altitude for the instrument landing being flown. Simply: the crew exceeded the aircraft and airfield’s minimum safe altitude for the foggy weather on approach.

The articles I have read blame the aircraft, airfield, even the President. However, none that I have read place the blame where it belongs. The crew should have diverted after going missed-approach multiple times. Instead, it appears they pressed the minimums and hit the trees. Even if the President had insisted they try again, upon reaching the minimum descent altitude unable to land safely, they should have diverted.

It is the hard decisions that may save your life. Ironically, you will never really know for sure. Can’t prove a negative.

I remember, years ago, flying an EA-6B from Cubi Point Naval Air Station (NAS) in the Philippine Islands to NAS Atsugi, Japan. We stopped for fuel in Okinawa and checked the weather: it was terrible in Atsugi. It was snowing and below non-precision approach minimums (it was above precision approach minimums 200-feet ceiling, 1/2 mile visibility).

The EA-6B Prowler did not have instruments for precision approaches; we were limited (except at the ship) to a ground-controlled approach (GCA). A GCA was an approach where a ground controller talked you down the glide slop and kept you on course via radio calls. Obviously, if you lost your radio, you were out of luck, so for safety reasons you had to be able to shoot a non-precision approach using the equipment on board as a backup.

The equipment was ancient technology, basically a needle (like on a compass) pointed to a radio station, and you would put the head of the needle on a specific inbound course descending off the clock or distance measuring equipment. It was not accurate, so the minimum altitude was usually 600-500 feet above the ground. BTW, that was above the runway area — you may be descending into a mountain valley or among buildings.

The EA-6B and other aircraft that had NFO’s (Naval Flight Officers) could complicate things because of command structure or rank. The Aircraft Commander could be the junior man by rank in the aircraft because he was the only pilot.

On this particular night, I was a Navy Lieutenant flying with three NFO’s, one of whom was the Commanding Officer of the Squadron, my boss.

Not only was the weather bad, it was a moonless night and we were late. We had flown a flight from the USS Midway, landed in Cubi Point in the Philippines, de-carrierized the aircraft (lowered the pressure in tires) and then launched to Okinawa.

Already a long day, we were tired and hungry when we landed in Okinawa. After I checked the weather in operations I told the crew we couldn’t go; Atsugi was below minimums. Since we were headed home to our families, after weeks at sea, we were all very disappointed. To further add to our disappointment was the fact we were only going to get two nights home. We would now spend one in Okinawa.

Our Commanding Officer, normally a stickler for the rules ,wanted to press. I was a push-it-to-the edge Attack Pilot, and had a beautiful wife and two cute little boys waiting for me. I had already landed zero/zero (zero visibility, zero ceiling) on the Midway more than once. However, there I had a precision CILS (Carrier Instrument Landing System) and a Landing Signal Officer (LSO) on deck, to keep me from hitting the ramp. In short, I had options and a good divert. If we lost our radio, we would be screwed going to Atsugi.

The Commanding Officer pressed (BTW, he was also the kind of guy who would stick it in your eye later for breaking the rules now.)  I held my ground,

“Skipper,” I said, “three legs; we are all tired and it is illegal. Let’s go to the Q (quarters) and hit it first thing in the morning.”

“Stand-by,” he snapped, and went to talk to the weather guessers. My other two crewman implored me to not let him kill us.

After a few minutes he returned triumphantly:

“I found a legal divert.”

It was an obscure Japanese Self Defense Force base in the mountains. None of us had ever flown there and it was just at non-precision approach minimums. As a bonus, it was at maximum-divert range; we would be trick-or-treat on arrival (land or flame out due to lack of fuel). Again, no options.

One of the very junior NFO’s couldn’t take it anymore.

“Skipper this is a bad idea.”

The other immediately agreed.

“Shantini and I will make the decision. You two are in the back!” he snapped in his best Command voice.

“No,” I said, “the decision is mine alone. I’m the Aircraft Commander, and I’m going to the Q.”

He was furious, but it was indeed my call. I was the only pilot.

The next day was beautiful all the way to Atsugi. The ice and snow-laden front had moved through. Our families were waiting as we landed; it was a joyous reunion.

The next afternoon, we sortied back to Cubi Point. Now that cooler heads prevailed, I thought he might give me a pat on the back for playing it safe and stopping the “get home-itis” (often fatal to Naval Aviators). Quite the opposite: he chided me in front of the crew, saying he checked and we could have made it. He then stomped off to the aircraft.

My fellow crewman were as stunned as I was.

“Man that guy is not only an idiot, he’s a jerk,” mumbled our newest Lieutenant Junior Grade.

Later, as we say in Naval Aviation, “I read about it”, on my Fitness as an Officer Report. No matter, I was alive. So was my crew, and my jet was in one piece.

Sometimes the hard decisions are not career-enhancing.

Each level of pilot certification comes with a raised performance level. Simply put; the further you progress, the higher the demonstrated skill level required to successfully complete the associated check ride. You are expected to fly better on your Commercial check ride then you did on your Private; the ultimate check and standard, is your ATP.

The initial proposal required that before you could fly as an airline pilot, you had to have proved you could fly to the standards of an airline pilot. Seemed logical; the flight schools, my own Alma Mata included, screamed bloody murder. Why? They knew that the last few students they had willing to go 100K into debt, to get a 20K a year job, would quit. Going from 190 hours to 1,500 would run the cost of being an airline pilot up exponentially. As always it is not about right or wrong, not even safety, it is about the money.

“Lives will be saved,” Senator Byron Dorgan, the North Dakota Democrat who heads the aviation subcommittee, said after the vote. “We really do advance the interests of pilot training and experience.”

No they really don’t; just an arbitrary number. In fact, the United States Navy determined years ago, after studying a history of aviation accidents, that the most UNSAFE pilots historically have between 800-1,000 hours. Ironic indeed!

You might be surprised that a North Dakota Senator is leading the charge (or capitulation depending on your view) of aviation experience. I’m not; the University of North Dakota has one of the largest flight schools in the USA. Some things never change, especially in congress.

The brain trust at flyersrights.org is at it again. This time they are specifically targeting JFK International Airport. Led by the noted realtor and self proclaimed aviation expert Kate Hanni; they have put their full weight behind denying the airlines request for temporary relief from The Airline Passenger Bill of rights Act of 2009.

I predicted here, months ago, that the bill would lead to mass cancelations and ultimately hundreds of thousands, even millions of passengers being adversely affected, vice the 1/100th of a percent of flights stranded, that the bill was designed to prevent. Very few flights have had the long on ground delays this bill addresses. On the 22nd of December 2009 I predicted that future weather events would cause massive cancelations. On the 17th of February 2010 I showed an example. On the 9th of March 2010 the debate ended; the CEO of Continental Airlines in his own words:

Smisek said many passengers on delayed flights “really want to go to LA or Mumbai, but the government by God says, ‘We’re going to fine you $27,500.’ Here’s what we’re going to do: We’re going to cancel the flight.”

Because airlines have cut flights, leaving the remaining ones more crowded, passengers will have fewer chances to rebook on another flight. Passengers, he said, won’t get to their destinations “for maybe days.”

The reality of the situation apparently has not yet reached flyersrights.org; in fact they now seem hell-bent on making the situation worse. A mere 5 days after the CEO of Continental Airlines stated the above, flyersrights.org strongly opposed an exception to 14 C.F.R. §§ 259.4(b)(1) and (b)(2).

The problem: JFK Airport is shutting down one of its major runways for construction. Thus knowing it will cause delays; Delta and JetBlue Airlines asked for relief until the construction is complete. A very reasonable request IMO, in light of the fact that the capacity of the airport will be greatly reduced.

Flyersrights.org, “representing the interests of airline passengers” responded:

“FlyersRights.org strongly opposes DOT’s granting any exemption from this regulation to these or to any other airlines serving JFK.”

Further:

“The DOT Secretary should deny these airline requests out of hand and direct FAA Administrator Babbitt to meet promptly with the airlines and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, JFK’s operator, to require the airlines to realistically schedule airline operations correlated to available JFK runway capacity during this construction period.”

Translation; cancel flights (keep in mind load factors are at historical highs. Airlines especially during summer months are virtually at capacity); so much for that trip to Paris. BTW doesn’t “out of hand” mean without even examining the impact? That would be ironically apropos to this organization.

The following paragraphs are laughable, their total lack of insight and understanding of the industry is eye-watering to me. I suppose you don’t get much Air Transport training in realty school.

“Airline passengers should not have to endure multi-hour delays on JFK’s taxiways because the FAA refuses to manage “flow control” over the ground movements of aircraft scheduled for departure. FlyersRights.org has recommended for years that FAA’s air traffic controllers at congested airports like JFK should be required to prohibit airlines from pushing their aircraft back from the gate when an unreasonably long taxiway delay before takeoff is inevitable. FAA has resisted, not wanting to preclude the airlines from using those taxiways as passenger parking lots.

The exemption-requesting airlines have long known about the approaching need for the Bay Runway to be closed temporarily for reconstruction. They have had many months to develop alternative solutions that wouldn’t make passengers suffer long tarmac delays: e.g., scheduling larger capacity aircraft, and adjusting departure schedules. Instead, they now propose distorting a new DOT regulation that was designed to protect airline passengers during occasional “irregular operations” (such as weather) to insulate themselves from the consequences of their chronic, everyday overscheduling of flights.”

Let’s look at some of Kate’s fixes closely, first:

“FlyersRights.org has recommended for years that FAA’s air traffic controllers at congested airports like JFK should be required to prohibit airlines from pushing their aircraft back from the gate when an unreasonably long taxiway delay before takeoff is inevitable.”

Again, evidence that (apparently) even a basic understanding of the industry is not present over at flyersrights.org. They must assume that every flight has its own gate, do the math. Flights have to come off the gate, because an arriving flight needs it to deplane. What is flyersrights.org’s answer to that? Which group of passengers gets to sit; arriving or departing? The industry has its answer ready; in the face of fines they will cancel the departing unless they get regulatory relief. Continentals CEO could not have been clearer. Let’s keep in mind if the aircraft does not go over the pond; the flight back the next day is also cancelled. A two for one deal; think that happening day in day out until November will adversely affect tourism, the economy, not to mention the airlines based in JFK?

“scheduling larger capacity aircraft,”

The international flights into and out of JFK are already flying the largest aircraft available that the markets will support, Boeing 747, 777, 767 and 757’s; Airbus 380, 340 and 330’s as well. They only have so many, they’re kinda expensive and require crews and mechanics and baggage handlers and….well you get the picture.
Surely our intrepid realtor doesn’t mean the airlines need to fly a 777 from small town USA to JFK. Or is it a case of; the small market passengers don’t deserve to fly around the world by connecting in New York. Not to mention in the case of JetBlue (one of the named airlines) the A-320 (approx 150 seats) is the biggest aircraft they fly.

I could go on but this pains even me. This is the danger of the internet; a small minority representing a fraction of the airline passengers of the world is inflicting damage to the entire system. Construction, like bad weather, happens in this industry. Not every day, but when it does, it will impact the schedule. The airlines now will have no other choice than to cancel flights. Personally, I would rather wait 4 hours on the ramp or taxi way, rather than sit in a hotel for 2 or 3 days.

An old Admiral once told me; “Son, one person pissing down your leg is not a movement.” Sadly, that is no longer true in the age of the internet.

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• Air traffic perfect storm for NYC (cnn.com)

Smisek said many passengers on delayed flights “really want to go to LA or Mumbai, but the government by God says, ‘We’re going to fine you $27,500.’ Here’s what we’re going to do: We’re going to cancel the flight.”

Because airlines have cut flights, leaving the remaining ones more crowded, passengers will have fewer chances to rebook on another flight. Passengers, he said, won’t get to their destinations “for maybe days.”

This is what happens when you let a self promoting Realtor set National Aviation Policy; truth is stranger than fiction. Good luck next winter; and bring your credit card because for a weather event you are on your own!

Imagine how “Wowed” I was, to learn via her website, that dear Kate is a California Realtor, Napa no less. Impressive credentials for someone who is re-writing the FARs on aviation; add to that she has ridden in the back and got stuck during a storm once. Impressive indeed; and now the “press” runs to her door for expert analysis, apparently over 800 times so far.

And the results are in! Rather than risk fines, the airlines have concluded the only fix is to simply cancel entire banks of flights. When a metric tells them that the mandated limit approaches for a flight or bank of flights they just cancel. Ironically, it is much cheaper for the airlines than de-icing, flying half full aircraft (due to people missing their flights) and sitting for hours burning gas. And here’s the best part: because it is weather-, not company-related, they don’t have to provide hotels or food vouchers. Bingo, Jed’s a millionaire!

So bottom line: instead of waiting on the “tarmac”, it is really called the ramp. Normally during a weather event aircraft are stacked on taxiways, but let’s not throw any technical facts into the mix; this is about emotion and revenge! Instead of that ugly wait for hours on the taxiway, passengers will now wait for days, at their own cost, in a hotel. What a great solution from the Boxer/Hanni brain-trust of California!

Let me explain why: if your flight is canceled your seat goes away. It is a perishable service, end of story. The next day’s tickets are already sold – AND load factors are at historic highs. That means, you guessed it, stand-by for the canceled flights’  hundreds of passengers. Let’s look at JetBlue only: last Wednesday, they canceled 387 flights due to the storm. In 2005/2006, they averaged 254 cancels for the entire year, a dramatic change. Let’s now do the math; 387 x 149=57,663 stranded passengers. JetBlue has 250 flights a day in JFK, so the total number probably represents most of their flights in a day. But I feel generous; let’s say only half were canceled: back to math. JetBlue’s load factor is in excess of 80%, but again we will be generous and use 80. That is 120 seats filled on a 149 seat aircraft for 774 flights in a day – 22,446 seats a day to move 57,663 passengers. That would require two and one half days, if all the stars aligned. Obviously it is not linear, load factors are average and JetBlue flies the E-190 as well. This is simply a big picture look at what happens mathematically when flights cancel vice delay.

Passenger advocates say that airlines don’t need to cancel flights to prevent tarmac delays. “This is solvable” without excess cancellations, said Kate Hanni, who founded Flyersrights.org after a flight she was on in 2006 was stranded.

I suppose there are dumber statements out there, but I haven’t seen one for a while, and it shows just how clueless this “Aviation Advocate” actually is, in my opinion. She must assume each and every flight has a dedicated crew, gate and aircraft. Apparently she doesn’t know that aircraft and crew fly multiple flights a day, gates AND “tarmac” space are finite and that FAR’s cause crew to time out when they return to the gate. Thus, if a flight waits for 2 hours 59 minutes, then returns to the gate, the crew day limits are re-calculated. You can bet at the end of the day they will go illegal. OBTW, reserve crews are finite as well.

Perhaps we can get Kate to do the arithmetic for us. Until then, good luck getting anywhere during the next snowstorm. Oh, I almost forgot. I noticed that 3 for 3 of Kate’s advertisers were lawyers on the site. Hmmm, curious. All this to fix a problem that historically affected less than 1/10th of 1% of daily flights. Amazing.

The coming changes will affect the major airlines as well. Post 911 the airlines used the bankruptcy court to gut pilot contracts. Their biggest target bedsides pay was work rules. You reap what you sow; it showed first in the Regionals and now the Majors are showing the initial signs of safety concerns. A recent rash of near and actual accidents all seem to have one common factor; fatigue.

The entire industry has been relying on pilot experience to preserve safety in a fatigued profession. Fatigue is accumulative and it seems that the industry is on the edge. The FAA apparently is concerned enough to re-write decades old regulations on crew rest and training. Mr. Babbitt; the Administrator for the FAA, is pushing hard to get them in place by spring. It can’t come fast enough; with age 65 now in effect fatigue mitigation will become even more critical to airline safety. It is my opinion that fatigue is the number one causal factor in airline mishaps and accidents.

The new rules will cause a need for more QUALIFIED pilots. That will cause a shortage; because quite simply they are not there for the Regionals. You reap what you sow; no 20 year old in his or her right mind will run up 100 thousand dollars in loans for a 16 thousand dollar a year job. Once the majors pick through what’s left of their furlough pools they will find the same thing. No military pilot in his or her right mind is going to take a huge pay cut flying fighters, to come to an industry that issues pay cuts instead of raises and zeros out retirements instead of funding them.

So the Majors will pull from the Regionals, which will empty the Regionals, which will then cause the majors to have to pick up the flying of the Regionals, which will in turn collapse the Regionals and cause a shortage in the Majors as they expand to pick up the flying. Follow the bouncing ball.

About the time this is all sorted out, the vast majority of major airline pilots will time out and the industry 12-14 years from now will grind to a halt. IATA is already experiencing a shortage of experienced pilots worldwide (temporarily dampened by 911/SARs/and now the economy) and their solution is to simply do away with pilot qualifications via the Multi Pilot License. This will kick the problem down the road for a while; however MPL holders cannot be Captains. Once the last of the old guys retire, that will ground a significant portion of the airlines of the world. There will not be enough Captains, period. Fewer flights, much fewer; with bigger aircraft will become the only operationally sustainable model. Ironically it will save the industry economically, for those airlines that secure enough Captains to keep enough of their fleet in the air. Supply and demand, economics 101; but it is going to be hard and expensive to get from major city to major city. The secondary and tertiary markets can forget about air service.

You reap what you sow; the airline Transport Association has successfully smashed the unions and beat down the job to the pay level of a truck driver at the Majors and a McDonald’s worker at the Regionals. Flight schools are shuttering their doors; young college educated, smart hard chargers (the typical pilot profile) do not want the job anymore. It is not worth it; they are going to Wall Street, Med School or Law School now. If they want to fly they will buy their own airplane. Bottom line, you get what you pay for.

First the video:

Not nearly as good as killathrill’s or mega whoosh’s; here is why: it does not mix actual footage with CGI. In my experience the best place to hide CGI is in plain sight. For example; in the opening scene of the attack on Pearl Harbor, in the movie of the same name; flights of Japanese aircraft cut through the mountain valleys as people watch. The lead aircraft of each flight are real, the wingman CGI. It looks great because the CGI aircraft are slaved to actual aircraft and their movement. Killathrill and mega Whoosh use the same technique.

Here are my problems with “Software Malfunction”:

The most obvious to a pilot in general is the flight controls do not match the movement of the nozzles. For example the vertical stabilizer never deflects. Here is a video of the SU-30, it also has vectoring thrust. Watch as the nozzles cycle the stabilizer matches the movement, even when they are modulating independently.

Next; the acceleration at the very end of the video is way too fast. The nozzles would have to vector aft slowly to insure controllability and then the jet aircraft could accelerate. The energy addition rate on the video is way too high.
The first thing that caught my eye as a former Naval Aviator; no crew on deck, not even a Launch Officer or LSE. A normal flight deck is teeming with crewman. Aircraft do not operate from ships without final checkers and launch personnel; there isn’t even a fire crew for an alleged experimental launch.

Also the video presentation itself: all PLAT cameras have the ship, date, time, wind direction and speed; presented at the top and bottom of the picture. This video did not.

As for the CGI; we’ve already discussed the acceleration rate. The other clear indicator is when you look closely as the CGI Joint Strike Fighter (F-35) accelerates away the imagery ripples through the parked helo. Also the sun angle was used to wash out the definition. A real camera would have been blinded by being pointed directly into the sun.
I’ll give it a C- as compared to killathrill’s A and mega whooshes B+. I suspect we will see a very similar presentation on a computer game very soon.

One last thing; to my knowledge the F-35 has not been to the ship yet.

ET-409 crashed on take off from Beirut International Airport. Initial reports cited witness descriptions of lightening strikes. However, after viewing a security video, it appears the left engine is compressor stalling, a precursor to an engine coming apart.

Compressor stalls are a jet engines version of backfiring, and come with flashes of white flames out of the engine intake. Foreign object damage to compressor blades is normally the cause.

I suspect left engine failure and subsequent fire will be a primary causal factor.